Niftyhas to cross 5800 to move more to 6000
Nifty will take supp @ 5680,5600.
Nifty will be in gain till 5800 tmrw

Nifty will open flat +ve tmrw

nifty will open -ve, or flat +ve  may be
but will take supp @ 5400, res @ 5440,
take long after 5490, or short below 5352,

for 12/08/2010

nifty will not be as much as -'ve as dow seems now,
at this point dow 200 pts -'ve.
i think  nifty will open negative taking supp 5385, then
will take u - turn.
 if breaks 5385, then 5360 nxt supp., keep S/L thr, then take a long,
Nifty will not brk 5352.as per my chart study, lets see,
anything can change anything

for 11/08/2010

mkt will open -'ve tmrw, 
go short tmrw in nifty S/L- 5475., tgt  - 5440-5420-5400
but nifty will take supp @ 5440, only bullrun after 5490,
keep S/L-5352 positionally

for 9/8/2010

Nifty will be +'ve tmrw, 
if opens in -'ve, take  a long at low lvl.
will take Supp@ 5420, Res @ 5460, 5498
Hold Long with S/L 5352-60, TGT - 5500-5800-6000 

Add caption

Nifty will take supp @ 5440-5420-5400-5380-5360-5353-5311
Nifty will take Ress @ 5460-5498-5546

Hold Long with S/L - 5352, TGT 5500-5800-6000

for 27/07/2010

Mkt tmrw not expected to be good but  breaking 5450, then Tgt 5480-5500
 

For 26/07/2010

Nifty will take supp @ 5440-5420-5400
Nifty will not break 5440.
I have already told to hold long after 5400 close
TGT is 6000. So, Hold on ur Longs S/L 5360-5200
One month time from now, starts to rally 6000 MARK monday will be +ve not breaking 5420 range
Not more +ve expected on monday,
Not fully oversold, may be 5500 touch seen


STRESS TEST passes good (out of 91 , 84 good)

  u can see nifty chart,
after crossing 5400, rushed to 5450, Nxt
i think if cuts 5450, then bullish, If not
then Sup @ 5420-5400-5380-5360
indicators r in ovrbght zone, so More Bullish is not good for Mkt Tmrw, then Mkt
Open +ve, then will rush down immediately to 5400.
So, Don't trade long on Gap up, wait till monday,
tmrw European Banks announces SOVERIGN DEBTS,

u can Nifty goes in yellow lines,
so nifty should touch 5380, take a supp @5360,
then travel to 5413 again,
Nifty not closes strongly abv 5400, so
there should be some weakness in mkt
lets see to cross 5400 & grab all shorts there.
Nifty will be in 5360-5453 range till strong.
Go short in opening tmrw, then come long.
there should be -ve opening,& flat mkt to +ve

Nifty breaked uptrend @ 5385, but holds 5360 now.
       Will take U-turn, but has to cross 5420-5429
       Nifty will be Flat in Range 5420-5360 tmrw.

see nifty , i have drawn a inverted H/S.
Tgt after Break , 6000 Sure.
Don't worry Hold Long after 5400,Sure 6000
If Not hold's 5400, then 5360-5310-5280-5220

Nifty will break 5400, But has to hold on it. that's matter
 

nifty will take supp @ 5380
has to stand 5400, then hold long. 

 traingle formed @ 5400 lvl, Now, If  Nifty Breaks 5400, then
  TGT for NIFTY is 5400+600pts = 6000
  Kindly take longs if Nifty Breaks & holds 5400 today.
  Huge Volume will make possible to hit 6000 lvl
  Period will be 1 month for tgt 6000 lvl,only Stands 5400
  Keep S/L 5200.

Nifty u can a triangle formation @ 5400 lvl,
nifty struggles to move 5360, if cuts then 5399.
intermediate sup @ 5200
Triangle breakout will take nifty to 5500-6300
breaks 5220, then 5000-4800 

hay all,
Nifty if crosses 5368-5399, then life time high is possible
nifty has huge sup @ 4800, no way to break elsethan great news,

time being it has to play with 5200 as Sup.need not to break that,
there is triangle formation in chart, shows breakout.
parallel formation range:5600-4800 

Res : 5290-5360-5380-5560

Sup: 5230-5200-5130

nifty goes as per chart, so now
only buy above 5325, keep booking  profit
keep a tgt urself for longs. don't hold for long period
sell if nifty breaks 5260 Tgt 5202

can u see nifty where it travels from the graph.?
not able gain the Bulls,but can, until it holds 5200.
One cn, Buy Nifty @ cmp S/L-5220, Tgt - 5295-5337.
If Breaks 5220, wait till breaking lvl 5202, then go Short. 
all are waiting to cross 5399 for more bullish to come
Let also wait for it, bocz, only speculators can win this Mkt

nifty will be between 5247 - 5313.

if breaks down 5260, then Tgt will be 5247- 5202

if goes abv 5275-5286, then 5313-5345-5399

Even though it comes down , Nifty has a chance to 

Break Life time High, if holds 4800 range till a month.or

otherwise can go till 4200 in short term, if breaks 4800.

one can , buy with s/l 5260, Tgt 5313-5337
sell below 5275, Tgt 5260-5247

nifty has to cross 5347, to go more,
till 5375, 5399
or it may come to 5275, can't stand here,
then 5247, 5200

NIFTY LVL FOR 22-06-2010

SUP- 5340-5300-5240

RES - 5399-5490

nifty  lvl for 21-06-2010

see here Nifty will take fibonico res & trend line res @ 5165-5300, Supp @ 5080,5050,5000,
may short if not crosses 5165, Tgt may be 5000-4800,
if crosses 5165, then 5300.

Hai everybody,

Market tmrw will be on positive side but not bullish.

don't take any fresh positions to carry for week basis

Trade in Mkt for less volume.

Buy NIFTY @ current, TGT 50 points from here

Thks

FOR 20-01-2010 LEVEL..
FOR TMRW,

US MARKET IS FLAT..,

INDIA VIX IS AT 22.34, LIKELY HIGHER THAN YSTRDY..,

SCO VASUE AT 80.79(SLIGHTLY -VE), NOT MORE +VE WILL BE FOR NIFTY.

RSI & STOCH %K ARE SLIGHTLY +VE. NOT MORE -VE WILL BE FOR NIFTY.

NIFTY TMRW CAN HAVE SUPP AT 5181(13' JAN LOW)& RES AT 5300.

MACD IS SLIGHTLY IN +VE SIGN...

TMRW MKT CAN BE IN +VE MODE BUT NOT SO BULLISH FOR FULL DAY.,

LET WE BUY NIFTY WHEN IT TOUCHES AROUND 5208 LEVEL.

HAVE A NICE DAY.,

FOR 19-01-2010 LEVEL....

FOR TMRW....,

MARKET MAY HAVE POSITIVE MOVE, BUT NOT AS MUCH AS...

WILL HAVE RESISTANCE AT 5298... & SUPPORT AT 5252...

EVENTHOUGH US MARKET IS ABSENT.. ASIAN WILL SHOW SOME WORK...

BUY NIFTY ON DOWN, WITH A TARGET OF 20-30POINTS...

HAVE A NICE DAY...

Hai Everybody

Long back to me , to be on my blg.
thks to god to make move in market on either side direction.

See the graph till yesterday

NIFTY Will take minor bear sign in current to be healthy after election.

RSI in OVERBOUGHT ZONE, indicating NEGATIVE SIGN for time being
MACD also in good sign to be healthy after a bear move

volume rises due to huge comeback in market involvers

NIFTY SUPPORT in 3160 -2890 - 2620 - 2502
NIFTY RESISTANCE - 3407 - 3556 - 3743- 4233

thks a lot.

NIFTY - A BIG SLEEPER CLASS COACH

Actually i came last FEB 2, after that i am reaching my blog today
I have created as a welfare Mode for those who visit my blog., not on any income mode
Those who dont analysis this mkt, will become fool in this market.
Kindly read the chart what it says,

dont loose your money

see the chart i have attached
what it says
NIFTY FIND SUPPORT at 2650 - 2503
NIFTY finds RESISTANCE at 2812 - 2860
MY CHART STUDY SUCEEDS EVERY DAY I POST
DONT SEE ANY MORE

HAI

Hai

Market When i have seen three months back
its trading in same range
where it take RES at 2860-2922-3148-3248-3640-3920-4148
but market still in Negative situation where it is not taken to EC ward

IMPORTANT SUPPORt at 2502-2250-2020

thks
see u later when mkt been testing any of these levels

From this chart u can find that VOLUME IS COMING DOWN, RSI INDICATES DOWNWARD, but some strength in MACD,

MARKET HAS RESISTANCE ONLY AT 2860-3250
SUPPORT AT 2580 - 2250

MKT MAY EVEN WORSE TO 1500 RANGE IN NIFTY, IF THIS CONTINUES.

This week is expected to trade in the range of 8730 - 9920 / 2570 - 2980. continuation of a further downward move and indices are likely to test lower levels.

SUPPORT : 2780 - 2690 - 2570 - 2512
RESISTANCE : 2860 - 2978 - 3258 - 3400

NEGATIVE BIAS, Traders should be in Short side only,

Take care, Be side, Dont take delivery or to go for taking 99% accuracy result for trade.

UPCOMING MARKET TREND:
With 5% moves in benchmark an index becoming a daily affair, volatility has suddenly assumed an altogether different meaning. This is reflected in

the adjoining chart of ET Intelligence Group’s Smart Money Ratio (SMR). As can be seen, the SMR — calculated by dividing the India VIX, with the near-month put-call ratio of Nifty option contracts — is now testing support at its previous resistance around 60.
What this essentially means is that extremely high SMR values, which used to act as a resistance and signal intermediate bottoms in the Nifty, are now acting as a support, signalling resistance points for the Nifty. So, until the SMR collapses below this support, a lasting respite for bulls looks unlikely.
As for Tuesday’s trade, a close at 2938.65 meant that uncertainty has reached an extreme level. So, between Monday’s gains and Tuesday’s losses, the Nifty has made a lower high and a higher low, within a very tight range. While a low below last weeks bottom of 2860 would have ensured that bears came back in hordes, it would have also triggered unwinding of long positions built over Friday and Monday.
Since that didn’t happen, both bulls and bears retired for the day, confused. This is clearly reflected in Nifty November futures, which added over 13 lakh shares in open interest on each of Friday and Monday, and saw virtually no change in the open interest on Tuesday.
If this reflected the uncertainty, then there was more in store in the options segment. Bucking the trend across strike prices, the 2900 put option added over 2 lakh shares in open interest. That it continues to see the biggest build-up of open interest across all option contracts of the November series means that Tuesdays build-up cannot be ignored as an aberration.
At the same time, fresh call build up at all call options from 2900 to 3300 and put unwinding across most strike prices pushed the put-call ratio of Nifty option contracts expiring in November to 1.04 from over 1.17 on Monday. However, the fact that even after the massive losses of Wednesday, the November Nifty put-call ratio didn’t fall below the psychologically important mark of one means that the highly volatile consolidation might just continue for some more time.

The Sensex has fallen by around 34% from its peak of 21,113 in January 2008, and analysts are talking about a further fall to 12,000 levels, with some pessimists not ruling out the index at 10,000 levels.
At the same time, the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) measures to curb inflation by reducing demand has resulted in interest rates on the 10-year bond crossing 9%.

Banks are now offering 9.5% on fixed deposits. Given the way interest rates are moving, fixed income returns could touch double-digit levels soon. So, the big question before investors is: should they choose equity or fixed income
“Investing in debt is risky in the long-term, while equity carries only a short-term risk. You can go for debt if you are looking at a 2-3 year time horizon,” says financial planner Gaurav Mashruwala.
If you look back to the mid-90s, financial institutions offered as much as 14% on term deposits, but soon rates tumbled and interest rates fell to 8% levels when these deposits came up for renewal.
If you are looking to park a large sum at the moment, you can look at a liquid fund for the next 3-6 months time horizon. “You may not earn great returns, given the soaring headline inflation, but at least your capital will be protected,” contends Transcend India’s director Kartik Jhaveri.
Remember, although returns from debt funds may be high now, but they may be negative after adjusting for inflation
If your outlook is short term, you can definitely look at debt. If you park your money in fixed maturity plan (FMP), or even bank deposits, you will at least get 3.5%. You can consider FMPs instead of FDs as they offer relatively better returns. If you fall in the higher tax brackets, FMPs are advisable, else you can consider FDs.

But if it is long-term investments that you are looking at, then there is no justification for any panic reaction to the market crash. “There is nothing abnormal about what is happening this time. The market will pick up later. Investors can learn from the experience that comes with losing money and can be better prepared next time,” feels Mr Mashruwala.
Typically, financial advisors recommend staying invested till the storm blows over, but adopting a clear strategy, that is, knowing what kind of funds could work for you can cushion the impact of the turbulence
SIPs average the ups and downs of the equity market. Volatility in the market cannot mask the fact that equity delivers higher returns compared to most asset classes, but investors need to understand that this can happen only in the long term.

“If you did a one-year SIP last year, it would have no merit given the market downturn. If you do an SIP for at least five years, then you will experience the fruits of one entire equity cycle,”.
: “SIP can be a good bet for a common man in any market situation. You should go for a SIP in an equity fund if your goal is 7-9 years away.”
The next aspect that you should consider is the kind of fund that would suit your needs. In a falling market situation, experts say, you should stick to diversified equity funds which are less riskier than sector-specific funds.

You can look at sector funds provided the top-five holdings belong to a renowned large-cap company. “Any day, a large-cap company will bounce back from its lows faster than mid-cap or small-cap companies.
“Large-caps are definitely safer, especially if you are a novice in the market. Such investors should stick to index constituents.
Index funds are the safest, followed by large-cap funds, mid-cap as well as small-cap and contrarian funds, thematic funds and sector funds — in that order.”
International funds could be a good form of diversification and gold funds can be considered too.

We are going through turbulent times and investors have lost heavily as they had based their investment decisions on forecasts of the so-called experts.

My experience in the markets has given me the humility to accept that there are no geniuses in the markets. It’s the media who makes them (experts) or a short spell of luck.

Let’s go back just six months in time. We had practically most of the brokerage reports recommending an array of stocks with very optimistic price targets.

We had mutual fund managers going on marketing trips and giving rosy picture of the economy and the opportunities in the stock markets. Stocks were a fancy.
Now, the same stocks which were recommended as “buys” are recommended as “sells” by the same broking outfits. Their analysts say so.

How can an investor hope to make money when he buys when the prices are high and sells when the prices are low? He would have been better off had the broking outfits recommended them as “sells” six months back and “buys” just now.

This brings us to an important conventional wisdom: can analysts predict the future? Their job is to analyse and not to forecast.

However, we have a money-spinning financial industry where lay investors make their decisions based on the forecasts or predictions made by the analysts. Not only that, the sophisticated investors also fall prey to the predictions of the so-called experts or analysts.
The 6th century BC poet Lao Tzu observed, “Those who have knowledge don’t predict. Those who predict don’t have knowledge.”

How true is this if we look at the state of the financial health of investors today? One would do well to keep in mind these words of wisdom when making investment decisions based on media reports, TV shows, expert seminars and lectures among others.

There have been two strong behavioural biases that have worked in poor forecasting by these so-called experts. One is over optimism and the other is overconfidence.

When times were good and the stock markets were rewarding mediocre stock picking, people were very optimistic on the future of the economy and the stock markets.
The early gains made them overconfident of the knowledge on the stock markets and the economic fundamentals. It also gave them the overconfidence in their own ability to ride the stock market waves.

These behavioural biases did not even spare the captains of our industry.
India Inc was on an acquisition spree. Take the instance of Tata Steel taking over Corus when the steel prices were at an all-time high, resulting in paying an unduly high price.

Similarly, we had Tata Motors acquiring Jaguar and Land Rover at the height of an economic boom. The markets have already started punishing these stocks.

In the last two years, we had Jet Airways acquiring Sahara and Kingfisher Airlines acquiring Deccan. Now, they are in deep losses and are running to the government for help.
Does for one moment anyone doubt the business acumen of the management of these companies? But then where did they falter? Was there anything wrong with their analysis?

Yes. Their analysts were not doing analysis but they were forecasting. They were too optimistic on the future and the good times had made them overly confident of their knowledge and ability.

Another behavioural bias that has played an important role is anchoring. We had been so much anchored to the good times of the last four years that all the forecasts which were made were based on the past performance.

Hence, there was not sufficient adjustment in spite of the evidence that the world economy could be affected by a liquidity crisis. The first ripple of the sub-prime was felt in November 2007. However, over optimistic and overconfident investors did not pay any heed to the first signs of trouble. They were anchored to the thought that any crisis would blow away.
We had a four-year bull run and now it is foolish to expect that the bear market will end in four months. What is the road ahead for investors? Looking at the above problems how does an investor avoid them?

The most obvious solution is to stop relying on such pointless forecasts. There are plenty of common sense approaches that one can implement without the use of forecasts. Value investing is an idea whose time has come.

In the current situation, there are eye popping values available at 6 to 10% dividend yield of good sustainable businesses run by credible management and having a healthy cash flow.

If one is very risk averse and wants to play safe, then equity investment is the best option. Have a two-year view. You don’t buy life
SOURCE : THE ECONOMIC TIMES

i have not updated this blog for the past 1 week

i will be updating regularly after volatility ends

till that i will give the data to watch.
take an idea on it

23/10/08

Gold has came down to 720$,
crude oil down to 68$.,
Dollar at all time high of 49.80 .,
Dow Future trading +ve with +100 points.,
Europe traders CAC DAX FTSE trade lower to around 1 to 2% each.,

Today's VIX is at 55 range, which is at flat compared to yesterdays but intra high of 66.,
Open interest Percentage of 3000 put(3%) & 3000 call (102%) is at huge variation.,
PCR % is at 0.75.,
MACD indicates the oversold range but means to wait for invest.
RSI which indicates to have long in Nifty.
The Nifty Future Premium is at 18 points,

From the Todays Volatility, market has indicated there will be huge volatility seen in coming days. market will be volatile tomorrow with support at 2920 & resistance at 3030.

Market reaction is too bad to the traders & investors.
Today's VIX is 54.5 which is certain lower than yesterdays.
Tomorrow's trading will give us an trend line to predict for coming weeks.

The MACD is seen in oversold zone, where u have to wait for invest.
NIFTY may touch 2950 in coming days.
S1: 3030, S2: 2980, S3: 2920
R1 : 3071, R2: 3150, R3: 3220

I will be just giving ideas to mkt level in simple logarthms, In coming later months i will be be giving with accurate trend & market needs.

Here u could see that MACD which seems to be in Oversold range and market is bouncing back to it, &

RSI being seen at certain turn in it which keeps market moves certain upside.

I have been mentioning there is no reason for Nifty to break 3k immediately, therefore mkt can be seen bouncing smartly but not bullish,

Market will be in the RANGE BOUND for the coming weeks, don't see to market can bounce back immediately.

NIFTY will trade between 3000 - 3600 for coming weeks.

take care.