UPCOMING MARKET TREND:
With 5% moves in benchmark an index becoming a daily affair, volatility has suddenly assumed an altogether different meaning. This is reflected in
the adjoining chart of ET Intelligence Group’s Smart Money Ratio (SMR). As can be seen, the SMR — calculated by dividing the India VIX, with the near-month put-call ratio of Nifty option contracts — is now testing support at its previous resistance around 60.
What this essentially means is that extremely high SMR values, which used to act as a resistance and signal intermediate bottoms in the Nifty, are now acting as a support, signalling resistance points for the Nifty. So, until the SMR collapses below this support, a lasting respite for bulls looks unlikely.
As for Tuesday’s trade, a close at 2938.65 meant that uncertainty has reached an extreme level. So, between Monday’s gains and Tuesday’s losses, the Nifty has made a lower high and a higher low, within a very tight range. While a low below last weeks bottom of 2860 would have ensured that bears came back in hordes, it would have also triggered unwinding of long positions built over Friday and Monday.
Since that didn’t happen, both bulls and bears retired for the day, confused. This is clearly reflected in Nifty November futures, which added over 13 lakh shares in open interest on each of Friday and Monday, and saw virtually no change in the open interest on Tuesday.
If this reflected the uncertainty, then there was more in store in the options segment. Bucking the trend across strike prices, the 2900 put option added over 2 lakh shares in open interest. That it continues to see the biggest build-up of open interest across all option contracts of the November series means that Tuesdays build-up cannot be ignored as an aberration.
At the same time, fresh call build up at all call options from 2900 to 3300 and put unwinding across most strike prices pushed the put-call ratio of Nifty option contracts expiring in November to 1.04 from over 1.17 on Monday. However, the fact that even after the massive losses of Wednesday, the November Nifty put-call ratio didn’t fall below the psychologically important mark of one means that the highly volatile consolidation might just continue for some more time.
Nov 12, 2008
The Sensex has fallen by around 34% from its peak of 21,113 in January 2008, and analysts are talking about a further fall to 12,000 levels, with some pessimists not ruling out the index at 10,000 levels.
At the same time, the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) measures to curb inflation by reducing demand has resulted in interest rates on the 10-year bond crossing 9%.
Banks are now offering 9.5% on fixed deposits. Given the way interest rates are moving, fixed income returns could touch double-digit levels soon. So, the big question before investors is: should they choose equity or fixed income
“Investing in debt is risky in the long-term, while equity carries only a short-term risk. You can go for debt if you are looking at a 2-3 year time horizon,” says financial planner Gaurav Mashruwala.
If you look back to the mid-90s, financial institutions offered as much as 14% on term deposits, but soon rates tumbled and interest rates fell to 8% levels when these deposits came up for renewal.
If you are looking to park a large sum at the moment, you can look at a liquid fund for the next 3-6 months time horizon. “You may not earn great returns, given the soaring headline inflation, but at least your capital will be protected,” contends Transcend India’s director Kartik Jhaveri.
Remember, although returns from debt funds may be high now, but they may be negative after adjusting for inflation
If your outlook is short term, you can definitely look at debt. If you park your money in fixed maturity plan (FMP), or even bank deposits, you will at least get 3.5%. You can consider FMPs instead of FDs as they offer relatively better returns. If you fall in the higher tax brackets, FMPs are advisable, else you can consider FDs.
But if it is long-term investments that you are looking at, then there is no justification for any panic reaction to the market crash. “There is nothing abnormal about what is happening this time. The market will pick up later. Investors can learn from the experience that comes with losing money and can be better prepared next time,” feels Mr Mashruwala.
Typically, financial advisors recommend staying invested till the storm blows over, but adopting a clear strategy, that is, knowing what kind of funds could work for you can cushion the impact of the turbulence
SIPs average the ups and downs of the equity market. Volatility in the market cannot mask the fact that equity delivers higher returns compared to most asset classes, but investors need to understand that this can happen only in the long term.
“If you did a one-year SIP last year, it would have no merit given the market downturn. If you do an SIP for at least five years, then you will experience the fruits of one entire equity cycle,”.
: “SIP can be a good bet for a common man in any market situation. You should go for a SIP in an equity fund if your goal is 7-9 years away.”
The next aspect that you should consider is the kind of fund that would suit your needs. In a falling market situation, experts say, you should stick to diversified equity funds which are less riskier than sector-specific funds.
You can look at sector funds provided the top-five holdings belong to a renowned large-cap company. “Any day, a large-cap company will bounce back from its lows faster than mid-cap or small-cap companies.
“Large-caps are definitely safer, especially if you are a novice in the market. Such investors should stick to index constituents.
Index funds are the safest, followed by large-cap funds, mid-cap as well as small-cap and contrarian funds, thematic funds and sector funds — in that order.”
International funds could be a good form of diversification and gold funds can be considered too.
At the same time, the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) measures to curb inflation by reducing demand has resulted in interest rates on the 10-year bond crossing 9%.
Banks are now offering 9.5% on fixed deposits. Given the way interest rates are moving, fixed income returns could touch double-digit levels soon. So, the big question before investors is: should they choose equity or fixed income
“Investing in debt is risky in the long-term, while equity carries only a short-term risk. You can go for debt if you are looking at a 2-3 year time horizon,” says financial planner Gaurav Mashruwala.
If you look back to the mid-90s, financial institutions offered as much as 14% on term deposits, but soon rates tumbled and interest rates fell to 8% levels when these deposits came up for renewal.
If you are looking to park a large sum at the moment, you can look at a liquid fund for the next 3-6 months time horizon. “You may not earn great returns, given the soaring headline inflation, but at least your capital will be protected,” contends Transcend India’s director Kartik Jhaveri.
Remember, although returns from debt funds may be high now, but they may be negative after adjusting for inflation
If your outlook is short term, you can definitely look at debt. If you park your money in fixed maturity plan (FMP), or even bank deposits, you will at least get 3.5%. You can consider FMPs instead of FDs as they offer relatively better returns. If you fall in the higher tax brackets, FMPs are advisable, else you can consider FDs.
But if it is long-term investments that you are looking at, then there is no justification for any panic reaction to the market crash. “There is nothing abnormal about what is happening this time. The market will pick up later. Investors can learn from the experience that comes with losing money and can be better prepared next time,” feels Mr Mashruwala.
Typically, financial advisors recommend staying invested till the storm blows over, but adopting a clear strategy, that is, knowing what kind of funds could work for you can cushion the impact of the turbulence
SIPs average the ups and downs of the equity market. Volatility in the market cannot mask the fact that equity delivers higher returns compared to most asset classes, but investors need to understand that this can happen only in the long term.
“If you did a one-year SIP last year, it would have no merit given the market downturn. If you do an SIP for at least five years, then you will experience the fruits of one entire equity cycle,”.
: “SIP can be a good bet for a common man in any market situation. You should go for a SIP in an equity fund if your goal is 7-9 years away.”
The next aspect that you should consider is the kind of fund that would suit your needs. In a falling market situation, experts say, you should stick to diversified equity funds which are less riskier than sector-specific funds.
You can look at sector funds provided the top-five holdings belong to a renowned large-cap company. “Any day, a large-cap company will bounce back from its lows faster than mid-cap or small-cap companies.
“Large-caps are definitely safer, especially if you are a novice in the market. Such investors should stick to index constituents.
Index funds are the safest, followed by large-cap funds, mid-cap as well as small-cap and contrarian funds, thematic funds and sector funds — in that order.”
International funds could be a good form of diversification and gold funds can be considered too.
We are going through turbulent times and investors have lost heavily as they had based their investment decisions on forecasts of the so-called experts.
My experience in the markets has given me the humility to accept that there are no geniuses in the markets. It’s the media who makes them (experts) or a short spell of luck.
Let’s go back just six months in time. We had practically most of the brokerage reports recommending an array of stocks with very optimistic price targets.
We had mutual fund managers going on marketing trips and giving rosy picture of the economy and the opportunities in the stock markets. Stocks were a fancy.
Now, the same stocks which were recommended as “buys” are recommended as “sells” by the same broking outfits. Their analysts say so.
How can an investor hope to make money when he buys when the prices are high and sells when the prices are low? He would have been better off had the broking outfits recommended them as “sells” six months back and “buys” just now.
This brings us to an important conventional wisdom: can analysts predict the future? Their job is to analyse and not to forecast.
However, we have a money-spinning financial industry where lay investors make their decisions based on the forecasts or predictions made by the analysts. Not only that, the sophisticated investors also fall prey to the predictions of the so-called experts or analysts.
The 6th century BC poet Lao Tzu observed, “Those who have knowledge don’t predict. Those who predict don’t have knowledge.”
How true is this if we look at the state of the financial health of investors today? One would do well to keep in mind these words of wisdom when making investment decisions based on media reports, TV shows, expert seminars and lectures among others.
There have been two strong behavioural biases that have worked in poor forecasting by these so-called experts. One is over optimism and the other is overconfidence.
When times were good and the stock markets were rewarding mediocre stock picking, people were very optimistic on the future of the economy and the stock markets.
The early gains made them overconfident of the knowledge on the stock markets and the economic fundamentals. It also gave them the overconfidence in their own ability to ride the stock market waves.
These behavioural biases did not even spare the captains of our industry.
India Inc was on an acquisition spree. Take the instance of Tata Steel taking over Corus when the steel prices were at an all-time high, resulting in paying an unduly high price.
Similarly, we had Tata Motors acquiring Jaguar and Land Rover at the height of an economic boom. The markets have already started punishing these stocks.
In the last two years, we had Jet Airways acquiring Sahara and Kingfisher Airlines acquiring Deccan. Now, they are in deep losses and are running to the government for help.
Does for one moment anyone doubt the business acumen of the management of these companies? But then where did they falter? Was there anything wrong with their analysis?
Yes. Their analysts were not doing analysis but they were forecasting. They were too optimistic on the future and the good times had made them overly confident of their knowledge and ability.
Another behavioural bias that has played an important role is anchoring. We had been so much anchored to the good times of the last four years that all the forecasts which were made were based on the past performance.
Hence, there was not sufficient adjustment in spite of the evidence that the world economy could be affected by a liquidity crisis. The first ripple of the sub-prime was felt in November 2007. However, over optimistic and overconfident investors did not pay any heed to the first signs of trouble. They were anchored to the thought that any crisis would blow away.
We had a four-year bull run and now it is foolish to expect that the bear market will end in four months. What is the road ahead for investors? Looking at the above problems how does an investor avoid them?
The most obvious solution is to stop relying on such pointless forecasts. There are plenty of common sense approaches that one can implement without the use of forecasts. Value investing is an idea whose time has come.
In the current situation, there are eye popping values available at 6 to 10% dividend yield of good sustainable businesses run by credible management and having a healthy cash flow.
If one is very risk averse and wants to play safe, then equity investment is the best option. Have a two-year view. You don’t buy life
SOURCE : THE ECONOMIC TIMES
My experience in the markets has given me the humility to accept that there are no geniuses in the markets. It’s the media who makes them (experts) or a short spell of luck.
Let’s go back just six months in time. We had practically most of the brokerage reports recommending an array of stocks with very optimistic price targets.
We had mutual fund managers going on marketing trips and giving rosy picture of the economy and the opportunities in the stock markets. Stocks were a fancy.
Now, the same stocks which were recommended as “buys” are recommended as “sells” by the same broking outfits. Their analysts say so.
How can an investor hope to make money when he buys when the prices are high and sells when the prices are low? He would have been better off had the broking outfits recommended them as “sells” six months back and “buys” just now.
This brings us to an important conventional wisdom: can analysts predict the future? Their job is to analyse and not to forecast.
However, we have a money-spinning financial industry where lay investors make their decisions based on the forecasts or predictions made by the analysts. Not only that, the sophisticated investors also fall prey to the predictions of the so-called experts or analysts.
The 6th century BC poet Lao Tzu observed, “Those who have knowledge don’t predict. Those who predict don’t have knowledge.”
How true is this if we look at the state of the financial health of investors today? One would do well to keep in mind these words of wisdom when making investment decisions based on media reports, TV shows, expert seminars and lectures among others.
There have been two strong behavioural biases that have worked in poor forecasting by these so-called experts. One is over optimism and the other is overconfidence.
When times were good and the stock markets were rewarding mediocre stock picking, people were very optimistic on the future of the economy and the stock markets.
The early gains made them overconfident of the knowledge on the stock markets and the economic fundamentals. It also gave them the overconfidence in their own ability to ride the stock market waves.
These behavioural biases did not even spare the captains of our industry.
India Inc was on an acquisition spree. Take the instance of Tata Steel taking over Corus when the steel prices were at an all-time high, resulting in paying an unduly high price.
Similarly, we had Tata Motors acquiring Jaguar and Land Rover at the height of an economic boom. The markets have already started punishing these stocks.
In the last two years, we had Jet Airways acquiring Sahara and Kingfisher Airlines acquiring Deccan. Now, they are in deep losses and are running to the government for help.
Does for one moment anyone doubt the business acumen of the management of these companies? But then where did they falter? Was there anything wrong with their analysis?
Yes. Their analysts were not doing analysis but they were forecasting. They were too optimistic on the future and the good times had made them overly confident of their knowledge and ability.
Another behavioural bias that has played an important role is anchoring. We had been so much anchored to the good times of the last four years that all the forecasts which were made were based on the past performance.
Hence, there was not sufficient adjustment in spite of the evidence that the world economy could be affected by a liquidity crisis. The first ripple of the sub-prime was felt in November 2007. However, over optimistic and overconfident investors did not pay any heed to the first signs of trouble. They were anchored to the thought that any crisis would blow away.
We had a four-year bull run and now it is foolish to expect that the bear market will end in four months. What is the road ahead for investors? Looking at the above problems how does an investor avoid them?
The most obvious solution is to stop relying on such pointless forecasts. There are plenty of common sense approaches that one can implement without the use of forecasts. Value investing is an idea whose time has come.
In the current situation, there are eye popping values available at 6 to 10% dividend yield of good sustainable businesses run by credible management and having a healthy cash flow.
If one is very risk averse and wants to play safe, then equity investment is the best option. Have a two-year view. You don’t buy life
SOURCE : THE ECONOMIC TIMES
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