LIVE RATE

Nov 19, 2008



From this chart u can find that VOLUME IS COMING DOWN, RSI INDICATES DOWNWARD, but some strength in MACD,

MARKET HAS RESISTANCE ONLY AT 2860-3250
SUPPORT AT 2580 - 2250

MKT MAY EVEN WORSE TO 1500 RANGE IN NIFTY, IF THIS CONTINUES.

Nov 17, 2008

This week is expected to trade in the range of 8730 - 9920 / 2570 - 2980. continuation of a further downward move and indices are likely to test lower levels.

SUPPORT : 2780 - 2690 - 2570 - 2512
RESISTANCE : 2860 - 2978 - 3258 - 3400

NEGATIVE BIAS, Traders should be in Short side only,

Take care, Be side, Dont take delivery or to go for taking 99% accuracy result for trade.

Nov 13, 2008

Nov 12, 2008

UPCOMING MARKET TREND:
With 5% moves in benchmark an index becoming a daily affair, volatility has suddenly assumed an altogether different meaning. This is reflected in

the adjoining chart of ET Intelligence Group’s Smart Money Ratio (SMR). As can be seen, the SMR — calculated by dividing the India VIX, with the near-month put-call ratio of Nifty option contracts — is now testing support at its previous resistance around 60.
What this essentially means is that extremely high SMR values, which used to act as a resistance and signal intermediate bottoms in the Nifty, are now acting as a support, signalling resistance points for the Nifty. So, until the SMR collapses below this support, a lasting respite for bulls looks unlikely.
As for Tuesday’s trade, a close at 2938.65 meant that uncertainty has reached an extreme level. So, between Monday’s gains and Tuesday’s losses, the Nifty has made a lower high and a higher low, within a very tight range. While a low below last weeks bottom of 2860 would have ensured that bears came back in hordes, it would have also triggered unwinding of long positions built over Friday and Monday.
Since that didn’t happen, both bulls and bears retired for the day, confused. This is clearly reflected in Nifty November futures, which added over 13 lakh shares in open interest on each of Friday and Monday, and saw virtually no change in the open interest on Tuesday.
If this reflected the uncertainty, then there was more in store in the options segment. Bucking the trend across strike prices, the 2900 put option added over 2 lakh shares in open interest. That it continues to see the biggest build-up of open interest across all option contracts of the November series means that Tuesdays build-up cannot be ignored as an aberration.
At the same time, fresh call build up at all call options from 2900 to 3300 and put unwinding across most strike prices pushed the put-call ratio of Nifty option contracts expiring in November to 1.04 from over 1.17 on Monday. However, the fact that even after the massive losses of Wednesday, the November Nifty put-call ratio didn’t fall below the psychologically important mark of one means that the highly volatile consolidation might just continue for some more time.
The Sensex has fallen by around 34% from its peak of 21,113 in January 2008, and analysts are talking about a further fall to 12,000 levels, with some pessimists not ruling out the index at 10,000 levels.
At the same time, the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) measures to curb inflation by reducing demand has resulted in interest rates on the 10-year bond crossing 9%.

Banks are now offering 9.5% on fixed deposits. Given the way interest rates are moving, fixed income returns could touch double-digit levels soon. So, the big question before investors is: should they choose equity or fixed income
“Investing in debt is risky in the long-term, while equity carries only a short-term risk. You can go for debt if you are looking at a 2-3 year time horizon,” says financial planner Gaurav Mashruwala.
If you look back to the mid-90s, financial institutions offered as much as 14% on term deposits, but soon rates tumbled and interest rates fell to 8% levels when these deposits came up for renewal.
If you are looking to park a large sum at the moment, you can look at a liquid fund for the next 3-6 months time horizon. “You may not earn great returns, given the soaring headline inflation, but at least your capital will be protected,” contends Transcend India’s director Kartik Jhaveri.
Remember, although returns from debt funds may be high now, but they may be negative after adjusting for inflation
If your outlook is short term, you can definitely look at debt. If you park your money in fixed maturity plan (FMP), or even bank deposits, you will at least get 3.5%. You can consider FMPs instead of FDs as they offer relatively better returns. If you fall in the higher tax brackets, FMPs are advisable, else you can consider FDs.

But if it is long-term investments that you are looking at, then there is no justification for any panic reaction to the market crash. “There is nothing abnormal about what is happening this time. The market will pick up later. Investors can learn from the experience that comes with losing money and can be better prepared next time,” feels Mr Mashruwala.
Typically, financial advisors recommend staying invested till the storm blows over, but adopting a clear strategy, that is, knowing what kind of funds could work for you can cushion the impact of the turbulence
SIPs average the ups and downs of the equity market. Volatility in the market cannot mask the fact that equity delivers higher returns compared to most asset classes, but investors need to understand that this can happen only in the long term.

“If you did a one-year SIP last year, it would have no merit given the market downturn. If you do an SIP for at least five years, then you will experience the fruits of one entire equity cycle,”.
: “SIP can be a good bet for a common man in any market situation. You should go for a SIP in an equity fund if your goal is 7-9 years away.”
The next aspect that you should consider is the kind of fund that would suit your needs. In a falling market situation, experts say, you should stick to diversified equity funds which are less riskier than sector-specific funds.

You can look at sector funds provided the top-five holdings belong to a renowned large-cap company. “Any day, a large-cap company will bounce back from its lows faster than mid-cap or small-cap companies.
“Large-caps are definitely safer, especially if you are a novice in the market. Such investors should stick to index constituents.
Index funds are the safest, followed by large-cap funds, mid-cap as well as small-cap and contrarian funds, thematic funds and sector funds — in that order.”
International funds could be a good form of diversification and gold funds can be considered too.
We are going through turbulent times and investors have lost heavily as they had based their investment decisions on forecasts of the so-called experts.

My experience in the markets has given me the humility to accept that there are no geniuses in the markets. It’s the media who makes them (experts) or a short spell of luck.

Let’s go back just six months in time. We had practically most of the brokerage reports recommending an array of stocks with very optimistic price targets.

We had mutual fund managers going on marketing trips and giving rosy picture of the economy and the opportunities in the stock markets. Stocks were a fancy.
Now, the same stocks which were recommended as “buys” are recommended as “sells” by the same broking outfits. Their analysts say so.

How can an investor hope to make money when he buys when the prices are high and sells when the prices are low? He would have been better off had the broking outfits recommended them as “sells” six months back and “buys” just now.

This brings us to an important conventional wisdom: can analysts predict the future? Their job is to analyse and not to forecast.

However, we have a money-spinning financial industry where lay investors make their decisions based on the forecasts or predictions made by the analysts. Not only that, the sophisticated investors also fall prey to the predictions of the so-called experts or analysts.
The 6th century BC poet Lao Tzu observed, “Those who have knowledge don’t predict. Those who predict don’t have knowledge.”

How true is this if we look at the state of the financial health of investors today? One would do well to keep in mind these words of wisdom when making investment decisions based on media reports, TV shows, expert seminars and lectures among others.

There have been two strong behavioural biases that have worked in poor forecasting by these so-called experts. One is over optimism and the other is overconfidence.

When times were good and the stock markets were rewarding mediocre stock picking, people were very optimistic on the future of the economy and the stock markets.
The early gains made them overconfident of the knowledge on the stock markets and the economic fundamentals. It also gave them the overconfidence in their own ability to ride the stock market waves.

These behavioural biases did not even spare the captains of our industry.
India Inc was on an acquisition spree. Take the instance of Tata Steel taking over Corus when the steel prices were at an all-time high, resulting in paying an unduly high price.

Similarly, we had Tata Motors acquiring Jaguar and Land Rover at the height of an economic boom. The markets have already started punishing these stocks.

In the last two years, we had Jet Airways acquiring Sahara and Kingfisher Airlines acquiring Deccan. Now, they are in deep losses and are running to the government for help.
Does for one moment anyone doubt the business acumen of the management of these companies? But then where did they falter? Was there anything wrong with their analysis?

Yes. Their analysts were not doing analysis but they were forecasting. They were too optimistic on the future and the good times had made them overly confident of their knowledge and ability.

Another behavioural bias that has played an important role is anchoring. We had been so much anchored to the good times of the last four years that all the forecasts which were made were based on the past performance.

Hence, there was not sufficient adjustment in spite of the evidence that the world economy could be affected by a liquidity crisis. The first ripple of the sub-prime was felt in November 2007. However, over optimistic and overconfident investors did not pay any heed to the first signs of trouble. They were anchored to the thought that any crisis would blow away.
We had a four-year bull run and now it is foolish to expect that the bear market will end in four months. What is the road ahead for investors? Looking at the above problems how does an investor avoid them?

The most obvious solution is to stop relying on such pointless forecasts. There are plenty of common sense approaches that one can implement without the use of forecasts. Value investing is an idea whose time has come.

In the current situation, there are eye popping values available at 6 to 10% dividend yield of good sustainable businesses run by credible management and having a healthy cash flow.

If one is very risk averse and wants to play safe, then equity investment is the best option. Have a two-year view. You don’t buy life
SOURCE : THE ECONOMIC TIMES

Nov 11, 2008

Nov 10, 2008

Nov 3, 2008

i have not updated this blog for the past 1 week

i will be updating regularly after volatility ends

till that i will give the data to watch.
take an idea on it

Oct 23, 2008


23/10/08

Gold has came down to 720$,
crude oil down to 68$.,
Dollar at all time high of 49.80 .,
Dow Future trading +ve with +100 points.,
Europe traders CAC DAX FTSE trade lower to around 1 to 2% each.,

Today's VIX is at 55 range, which is at flat compared to yesterdays but intra high of 66.,
Open interest Percentage of 3000 put(3%) & 3000 call (102%) is at huge variation.,
PCR % is at 0.75.,
MACD indicates the oversold range but means to wait for invest.
RSI which indicates to have long in Nifty.
The Nifty Future Premium is at 18 points,

From the Todays Volatility, market has indicated there will be huge volatility seen in coming days. market will be volatile tomorrow with support at 2920 & resistance at 3030.

Oct 22, 2008



Market reaction is too bad to the traders & investors.
Today's VIX is 54.5 which is certain lower than yesterdays.
Tomorrow's trading will give us an trend line to predict for coming weeks.

The MACD is seen in oversold zone, where u have to wait for invest.
NIFTY may touch 2950 in coming days.
S1: 3030, S2: 2980, S3: 2920
R1 : 3071, R2: 3150, R3: 3220

I will be just giving ideas to mkt level in simple logarthms, In coming later months i will be be giving with accurate trend & market needs.

Oct 21, 2008



Here u could see that MACD which seems to be in Oversold range and market is bouncing back to it, &

RSI being seen at certain turn in it which keeps market moves certain upside.

I have been mentioning there is no reason for Nifty to break 3k immediately, therefore mkt can be seen bouncing smartly but not bullish,

Market will be in the RANGE BOUND for the coming weeks, don't see to market can bounce back immediately.

NIFTY will trade between 3000 - 3600 for coming weeks.

take care.

Oct 20, 2008

Oct 16, 2008

16/10/08

Bears & Bulls are actively playing & hitting each other.
"there is a slap from bears in the morning & it was returned to them by Bulls in the closing session" of today's market.

Market is in hand of Bears & , bulls try them to pull out by way of some energy(Recovery).

As of from today's Market we could find that there will be some positive sign in market with heavy volatile bcoz bears not able to break 10k mark in sensex.

Yesterday i have mentioned that there is no reason for quick cut of 3000 mark in Nifty, & it will follow.

Tomorrow market will be volatile with positive sign, with Resistance of 3300 immediate, & support of 3200 mark.

Again i am requesting not to pore money in this market.

Oct 15, 2008

15/10/08

As of my yesterdays message, market pulled down to 3300 level, where it created important support at this level.

There is some buying seen from FII in yesterdays market to 1700 cr & also some 3600 call writing seen, there will not be immediate downside to brake 3000 range.

Tomorrow Nifty will trade in negative bias with 3300 & 3270 as its support.

But our market only in bearish mode, no investment should pored in market.

Oct 14, 2008

14/10/08

Today After Opening Gap Up Market was sliding behind it resistance level of 3630 and later 3600, In Last Closed around 3520, which indicates that there is some selling behind the market seen yet.

Tomorrow Market could see with negative volatile thru out the day, with
SUPPORT at 3480 & 3450.

IMPORTANT SUPPORT LEVELS: 3325, 3230, 3140,
Once First support broken, u can go Short in NIFTY.
Market will be weak for the coming weeks which can touch even 9k mark in SENSEX & 2900-2600 mark in NIFTY.

( the above views on technical study reports)

Oct 13, 2008

Markets go into a tailspin on FII selling, globally negative sentiment

The Indian markets witnessed a complete sell-off during this week of trade, with the BSE Sensex losing 16%, while the NSE Nifty
lost over 14% on the back of continuous FII selling and extremely weak global cues. The week started on a bearish note, with the
Sensex losing 725 points on Monday on continuing negative global sentiment, doubts about efficacy of the US $700bn bail-out
plan and concerns about the contagion spreading to Europe. Tuesday saw a highly volatile session amidst news of market
regulator, SEBI's move to lift restrictions on the issue of P-Notes and the RBI's 50bp CRR cut. The eventual close was in the red
by over 100 points. Wednesday saw another negative session, with the Sensex losing around 367 points.
Over Wednesday and Thursday, seven global central banks including the US Fed, Bank of England, European Central Bank, Bank
of Korea and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority cut rates in a co-ordinated effort to prevent the credit crisis sparking a global
recession. This did not have any impact, with global markets closing lower. The Sensex followed suit on Friday, getting hammered
by over 800 points after a holiday on Thursday on account of Dusshera. This was the case, even as the RBI cut the CRR by a further
100bp, taking the total cut to 150bp. Over the week, the Sensex lost nearly 2,000 points, while the Nifty fell 538 points.
FIIs have sold a massive Rs4,858cr over the past couple of weeks (over US $1bn). Over the past five sessions of trade, they have
sold a net of Rs3,847cr (US $794mn), leading to this precipitous fall. Even as some good news came in the form of inflation falling
to 11.80% (11.99%) and crude prices falling below US $80/barrel, this was ignored. The week also saw commencement of the
2QFY2009 Earnings season, with Infosys announcing its numbers on Friday. The company's numbers were above expectations,
helped by volume growth and Rupee depreciation. But, the fact that it cut its Dollar guidance to reflect increasing global uncertainty
led to IT stocks losing ground. The IIP numbers for August came in at a dismal 1.3%, adding to the negative sentiment.